Most of the electrolyzers, which make hydrogen, are made in China, and the vast majority of solar equipment is made in China, and the overwhelming percentages are expected to grow. “Falling costs of solar PV are the key driver,” Tengler said, behind his enthusiasm for hydrogen, which reflects his enthusiasm for solar.Īlso, his enthusiasm for China. Solar PV is how solar converts sunlight into electricity, and the process can also be used to create hydrogen fuel. Solar photovoltaic, or PV, combines words for light (photo) and electricity (voltaic). At the head of the cost-reduction predictions are, Tengler said, solar PV. What has Tengler and his forecasting team excited about hydrogen is its industrial future, making steel, plastic, and cement, which it does now, and powering airplanes, ships and trains, which it doesn’t. In fact, Tengler said, “Hydrogen may not be the best fuel for cars.” Compared to electricity, that is. Interestingly, though, this latest hydrogen frenzy has little to do with cars. The hydrogen-powered Toyota Mirai averages about 73 miles per kilogram, according to the EPA. Meanwhile, no one is predicting gasoline will decline by 85 percent by, well, ever.Ĭosts could dip below $1 per kilogram of hydrogen by then, compared to an average cost of $16.51 per kilogram in 2019. Tengler thinks those costs could plunge by 85 percent by 2050. Because costs will begin to decrease considerably for hydrogen production, and not just dirty "gray" hydrogen produced by, say, fossil fuels or coal-generated electricity, but of non-polluting green hydrogen. with hydrogen infrastructure, continues to wrestle with supply in the face of even modest demand. Why is Tengler optimistic now? Especially as California, the one place in the U.S. Hyundai Gives Nexo Cars to Feds for Hydrogen R&D.2021 Toyota Mirai: A More Appealing Hydrogen Car.Lots to Like about Hydrogen, If You Can Find It.Daimler Trucks and Volvo have partnered in Europe to try to help cut costs and make hydrogen make financial sense for long-haul trucking. While most automakers have announced ambitious electrification plans pegged to plug-in vehicles, Honda recently made sure to include hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles in its goal to phase out gasoline engines in North America by 2040. Just in the past year, forecast growth, or at least interest, in hydrogen power has grown beyond even recent predictions. That didn't happen, either.īut this next near-frenzy might be different, Tengler believes. They did not hit that mark.Īnd then there was 2009, when multiple auto manufacturers signed a joint letter of intent that by 2014, they would be selling hundreds of thousands of hydrogen-powered cars. The second frenzy came in 2005, when the CEO of Ballard Power Systems, maker of fuel cells, said they’d be selling between 200,000 and 500,000 a year to auto manufacturers by 2010. They probably didn’t mean more than 45 years in the future. That’s the year Road & Track touted “Hydrogen: New & Clean Fuel for the Future” on its March cover. Martin Tengler, Tokyo-based lead hydrogen analyst for BloombergNEF, likes to talk about how we’re on the cusp of at least the fourth pro-hydrogen near-frenzy since 1974. CORRECTION : The type of hydrogen produced by the Ways2H process is renewable hydrogen, not blue hydrogen.
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